THE PREDICTION OF A LARGE FETUS BY ULTRASOUND FETOMETRY METHOD

The aim of the study was to predict a large fetus by ultrasound fetometry using the regional standards and the calculation of the expected weight of the fetus by linear regression analysis. A retrospective analysis of the protocols of fetal ultrasound was done with 150 patients who gave birth to large babies and 150 patients who gave birth to babies with normal body weight. The parameters of fetometry including biparietal diameter (BPD), frontal-occipital circumference (FOC), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC), femurbone length (FBL) were studied. The criterion of a large fetus was the deviation of one or more of the indicators of fetometry that were above the confidence interval for this term of pregnancy. In 2012, in the Amur region the regional standards of fetometry were developed, up to that time the standards developed for the city of Moscow had been used. It was found out that forecasting of a large fetus in the period of 32-34 weeks of gestation by using regional standards was possible with 46.5% of sensitivity and 86.5% of specificity, which was higher than the use of standards developed for other areas (p<0.001). The sensitivity is increased under comparative analysis due to all analyzed indicators of fetometry, but the greatest one was observed in the BPD of the fetal head (31.3%). The regional standards of fetometry increase the informativity of prediction of fetal macrosomia in comparison with the standards of Moscow, due to reduction of medians of all indicators after 30 weeks of pregnancy and the restriction of the confidence interval of tolerance predominantly of the upper limit of normal. The correlation coefficients for the fetal macrosomia between the indicators of fetometry (BPD, AC, FBL), and body weight of the newborn at birth indicated the significant correlation in 32-34 and 38-40 weeks of pregnancy, which was most intensive in AC of the fetus (r=0.53). The calculation of the expected weight of a large fetus by linear regression analysis based on fetometrical indicators BPD, AC, FBL is reliable and has a high statistical significance (p<0.01).

беременность, плод, ультразвуковая фетометрия, прогнозирование, линейный регрессионный анализ, pregnancy, fetus, ultrasound fetometry, prediction, linear regression analysis

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