THE MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF THE COURSE OF ADAPTIVE PROCESS AND FORMATION OF RISK GROUPS ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF RESPIRATORY PATHOLOGY IN FOREIGN SERVICE MEN

Abstract

The aim of the research is prediction of the course of adaptive process and manifestation of respiratory pathology in foreign servicemen studying in military institutions of Russian Federation (RF). The article presents the details of the methodology of calculation of probability of risk groups formation by the development of respiratory pathology and in particular of out-patients pneumonia in 94 cadets of military institutions who arrived in RF from the Central Africa, South-East Asia and the countries of Middle East. In the calculation methodology the correlation coefficient including the region of the permanent residence of service men is used. The calculation method of respiratory pathology prediction is developed on the use of the data of the initial examination of cadets which includes anthropometric, clinical and laboratory indicators. Statistical model includes two calculation complexes. The first complex allows to make the integral estimation of the cardio-vascular system state, general adaptation responses, intensiveness of the common exchange, trophologic status in 2 and 6 months of foreign citizens being in the new conditions on the territory of RF. Integral coefficients for above-mentioned parameters are calculated on the basis of developed complexes of discriminant functions by the theory of Wald descriptive statistics. The second complex allows on the basis of the obtained data to make discriminate equations and distribute cadets into the risk groups according to the morbidity with respiratory pathology. Recommendations for foreign military specialists about the prevention of respiratory pathology development in the period of the initial adaptation during the first year of studying were made.