Predicting the risk of frequent exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
https://doi.org/10.36604/1998-5029-2025-98-68-74
Abstract
Aim. To study the possibility of predicting frequent exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by assessing parameters of lung function and echocardiographic indices.
Materials and methods. A oneyear prospective single-center study included 85 patients with COPD exacerbations, of whom two groups were formed based on the results of observation during the year. Group 1 included patients (n = 28) with one or no exacerbations per year, group 2 included patients (n = 57) with two or more exacerbations during the year (frequent exacerbations). It was found that patients in group 2 had more pronounced impairments of lung and cardiac function. A comprehensive clinical and functional examination included the CAT, mMRC, KOP-25 questionnaires, a study of lung function and an echocardiographic examination.
Results. Based on discriminant analysis data, two highly effective prediction models were developed to identify patients at increased risk of frequent exacerbations over the course of a year. Questionnaire results, respiratory parameters (FEV1, FEF50), and echocardiographic parameters (interventricular septal thickness and tricuspid annular systolic displacement (TAPSE)) were used as predictors.
Conclusion. These models can be used to develop a technology for predicting an unfavorable COPD course to ensure a personalized approach when choosing treatment for patients at high risk of exacerbations.
About the Authors
T. V. Sycheva
Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Tatyana V. Sycheva, Ultrasonographer
22 Kalinina Str., Blagoveshchensk, 675000
J. M. Perelman
Far Eastern Scientific Center of Physiology and Pathology of Respiration
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Juliy M. Perelman, MD, PhD, DSc (Med.), Professor, Corresponding Member of RAS, Head of Laboratory of Functional Research of Respiratory
System
22 Kalinina Str., Blagoveshchensk, 675000
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For citations:
Sycheva T.V., Perelman J.M. Predicting the risk of frequent exacerbations in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Bulletin Physiology and Pathology of Respiration. 2025;(98):68-74. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.36604/1998-5029-2025-98-68-74
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